Racial Polling Data and Why It Sucks
Following the 2020 Democratic Primaries one of my favorite things to do is check the different polling data. While it’s a very imperfect science it can give you an idea of what the country is thinking and how they will likely vote. This data is often split up into different demographics, most commonly race, age, gender, ideological lean, and religious affiliation. Some include income brackets, but for some reason this is less commonly shared at least. However, I must say I have a particular gripe with the most commonly shared polling demographic which is that of race. There is no other polling demographic of which is talked about more in the media. This has been true for quite some time. I remember quite vividly how in 2016 the media constantly talked about how Bernie Sanders couldn’t appeal to the black vote and how he needed to change his campaign to better appeal to black people. In 2020, this has largely changed as Bernie Sanders now polls best among black voters in America and Joe Biden is second place. Did something change? Did Bernie Sanders learn how to appeal to black people, or did Hillary Clinton just have a special appeal to black people that is missing from the 2020 primary? My answer is clearly NO. There isn’t a major difference and polling based on race is missing the point.
If you are up to date with the science of biology and genetics you should be aware that racial categories are an arbitrary social construct that has no scientific validity. There is more genetic diversity often between people of the same race as there are of people of different races. The construct of race is scientifically meaningless. However, if the political world with the history of racism it isn’t without meaning. Racism has a nasty past in America with the history of slavery and Jim Crow and this isn’t over by any means. Racism is still very much a reality for today. However, I don’t think that race as a polling demographic is good for showing how the population views their presidential candidates, and I also think it does more to reinforce racial divisions than it does to unite us all as fellow humans.
If we look at the various different racial demographics in America it is actually quite difficult to find any uniform similarity between the communities. The categories of White, Black, Asian, Latino, etc. really don’t cover all the different varieties of ethnic backgrounds there are in America or even the culture these people have. This alone makes it rather odd in my opinion as to why we would like to narrow down the views of people based in something like race which is primarily just a skin color. However, we then get into how these communities function. For an easy example in this essay I’m going to assume a community is entirely black. This community will not have uniform views on politics. They will have a diversity of political opinion based on various different factors. In any community there will be different class relations. There will be a bourgeoisie and a proletariat. There will also likely be some people that don’t fit into such roles quite as easily such as self-employed people and those which are unemployed or even lumpen proletariat. All of these people have different material interests in who to vote for. The bourgeois people likely would vote for lower taxes and better property rights, and the working class people likely vote to tax the more wealthy and higher wages. Then we get into other social and cultural features.
In all communities there is probably at least some diversity of religious following. Lets keep it simple and say 75% are Protestant, 15% are Catholic, 6% are Muslim, and 4% are atheist/agnostic. All of these different affiliations will probably cause them to vote differently in an election. The larger Christian factions may be slightly more conservative as they hold ideological hegemony. The two minority factions may have a form of solidarity against the larger factions. The atheists in particular might possess the most socially progressive views of them all as they reject some of the bigotries against women and LGBTQ+ that’s common in religion. This is of course ignoring that there would be factional disputes even between religious groups and the differences between ex-Christians and ex-Muslims also plays a difference.
People of all races have a diversity of political ideology. Everyone from every racial and ethnic background can have a political ideology which ranges from communist to fascist, from anarchist to totalitarian. There is nothing about being a particular race which makes someone immune from being drawn to one of these political ideologies. In America due to largely having a 2 party system we have developed an oversimplified analysis that white people vote Republican and non-white people vote Democrat and the “good whites” vote Democrat too. This completely ignores the reality that the majority of that is explained by other factors such as class and political ideology. However, the major point I would like to make is there is nothing that makes someone more or less of a specific race by believing in a particular political ideology. Black people such as Candace Owens or Thomas Sowell are often denounced as race traitors or Uncle Toms for their conservative politics, and I frankly see this as nothing short of a different form of racism. These two people might have horrible politics, but they are also individuals. Even if they are bought and paid for by the Koch Bros or some other wealthy conservative we don’t hear such racial attacks made when they are white. The truth of the matter is if we ever establish a completely non-racist society you would see people of color spread across the political spectrum just like white people do. They have autonomy and we shouldn’t be denying them this because they are people of color.
I left age for last because I think it largely draws on the other points, but I do also think there does tend to be a true difference between the generations in voting. We have all heard the phrase, “You get more conservative when you get older.” Voting and polling data would tend to show this to be the truth. The older generations are far more likely to vote for conservative candidates or at least the most moderate of the liberal candidates. The youth vote seems far more likely to support progressive candidates such as Bernie Sanders. Now, why is this the case? Is it because the youth are reckless and the older generation wise? I personally don’t think so, but I also wouldn’t rule out some psychological factors that are associated with aging. One could fairly say that the youth sees room for big change as they have their entire lives in front of them, and the old would rather see some small changes now as they have already lived much of their lives. However, a much bigger factor seems to be the priority here. The older generations on average are far wealthier than the younger generations. This is probably the biggest factor in the difference period. This is also true across racial demographics as well and it is why the use of race based polling is completely useless. If you take a closer look at the polling in this 2020 Democratic Primary I can guarantee you that Bernie Sanders is winning the youth black vote and Joe Biden is winning the older black vote. The primary reason is probably due to class more than anything else.
I do want to touch on that the most important demographic breakdown for polling data should be by class, and I think the reason this is neglected is maybe unintentional, but it plays a key role in maintaining the status quo. This doesn’t just mean in maintaining the capitalist system either. It works to maintain the identity based divisions in society which keep us fighting amongst each other instead of against the bourgeoisie. Even some of these other divides I’ve discussed such as religion and generation are primarily distractions from what should be a class based struggle for a more equal society. Truth is that your economic relations in society are the best factor to determine your interests. If you have a low paying job you will likely vote for the candidate that says they will support unions to raise your wages, provide better access to healthcare and education, and provide other benefits. If you are a business owner bringing in a strong income you’re likely to vote for the candidate that will lower your taxes and protect the wealth you have accumulated. I would like to end this with something Christopher Hitchens said making the very same point about why he didn’t like race demographics in polling. Generalizing people based on race is the definition of racism. We should instead look to see more important divides between people than just skin color.